Is the Recession Drawing Closer?

← Go back Sep 09, 2023

experienced a bleak day, with all major indexes closing at a loss. The maintained rates, keeping federal funds at 5.25% to 5.50% until at least November. Meanwhile, the ongoing UAW strike, potential consumer headwinds, and seasonality are all under scrutiny. Notably, the big tech stocks that have driven this year’s rally are starting to see some selling after big moves higher. Treasury yields were higher across the curve, witnessing a surge in many maturities that hasn’t been seen in years. The sellers were primarily focused on maturities from the two-year, which closed at 5.18%, up to the standard 10-year note, which ended the session at 4.41%, the highest since 2007. The inversion between the two still indicates an impending recession, predicted to occur in 2024. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude paused their strong upward trend from the past 10 days. A large inventory draw kept the recent bid in place, with Brent finishing the day down 0.81% at $93.53, and WTI closing down 1% at $90.28. Natural gas also ended the day lower, down almost 4% at $2.73. Gold closed lower on the day, with the December contract closing down 0.12% at $1,951.30. The rising U.S. debt, which has hit a staggering $33.04 trillion, contributed to this. This number reflects a 50% increase in federal spending between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2021. Bitcoin also closed slightly lower on the day at $27,123.90. Top analyst upgrades and downgrades were also reported. Azul S.A. was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by , raising the target price to $18.30. Bausch Health Companies Inc. was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, lifting its target price to $16. On the other hand, Domino’s Pizza Inc. maintained a Hold rating from Jefferies. The recent events on Wall Street have sparked concern among investors. With the Federal Reserve maintaining rates and treasury yields surging, there is a growing sentiment of an impending recession. The increase in US debt also adds to the worry. Analysts are making strategic moves, with upgrades and downgrades aimed at navigating the current economic landscape.

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