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Benjamin Cowen suggests that the imminent challenge for Bitcoin traders, whether they are bullish or bearish, centers around the "death cross." This occurs when an asset’s 50-day moving average falls below its 200-day moving average, indicating a potential entry into a more pronounced phase. Before the death cross, the asset’s value often declines, leading to panic selling as traders interpret it as a negative sign. However, this strategy may not be wise, as both golden crosses and death crosses are retrospective indicators relying on moving averages, which inherently lag behind market developments. Cowen also notes that during pre-election years, the S&P 500 typically undergoes a seasonal correction, putting downward pressure on for the rest of the year, regardless of the S&P 500’s overall performance. Cowen, a prominent crypto analyst, argues that Bitcoin enthusiasts and skeptics alike are poised for confusion due to an impending false “death cross.” According to Cowen, this pattern typically occurs during Bitcoin’s pre- years, which happen every four years and reduce miners’ rewards by half. The next halving is expected in April 2024, making 2023 a pre-halving year. Cowen explains that during pre-halving years, as has been mentioned repeatedly, both the bearish and bullish sides of the market tend to face challenges. Both sides experience turbulence, leading to considerable uncertainty by year-end, regardless of their bullish or bearish positions. He also emphasized the fact that historically, this has been the prevailing trend in all three prior pre-halving years. Both sides of the market face disruption, which leads to the expectation of an eventual lower high.
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