Bitcoin’s 2015 Déjà Vu: Warning Signs in 2023

← Go back Sep 09, 2023

In a recent analysis, a prominent cryptocurrency strategist has drawn parallels between Bitcoin's current price action and its historical performance in 2015. During a strategy session, analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted the similarities between Bitcoin’s recent robust rally and its movements in 2015. In early 2015, experienced a notable surge, doubling its value within a few months, climbing from a low of around $150 to surpassing the $300 mark. Cowen pointed out that this year’s rally, though impressive, resembles the 2015 pattern more closely than the larger 3x to 4x rallies witnessed in 2019, characterizing it as a 2x rally in magnitude. However, Cowen issued a cautionary note, suggesting that if Bitcoin follows the 2015 structure, it could undergo a 50% devaluation. He emphasized the risk of Bitcoin failing to find adequate support when breaking key levels, referencing the scenario in 2015 when the plummeted by 50%, eventually reaching a double bottom. Notably, Cowen’s warning coincides with the emergence of a “death cross” pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart. A death cross occurs when a short-term moving average ( ) crosses below a long-term MA while the price remains below both MAs, often signaling an impending bearish reversal. Cowen’s analysis illustrated that Bitcoin is currently in the early stages of this death cross pattern, with the 50-day MA (white line) dipping below the 200-day MA (orange line). As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $25,933.

Read more: coinspress

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